Report Highlights. The effect student loan debt has on the economy is similar to that of a recession, reducing business growth and suppressing consumer spending.
- From 2019 to 2023, the average student loan debt grew by 3.6%; meanwhile, the national economy shrank by 3.4%.
- In the last decade, student loan debt increased by an average of $78.7 billion every year.
- The average college degree offers a 14.0% return on investment.
- Adjusted for inflation, 9.0% was the average annual growth rate for the national federal student loan debt from 2007 to 2021.
Related reports include Total Student Loan Debt | Average Student Loan Debt | Education Attainment Statistics | Student Loan Refinancing
Student Debt Economic Impact
Economists compare the rise in student loan debt to “the housing bubble that precipitated the 2007-2009 recession” and the subsequent economic downturn.
- Since 2006, the total national student loan debt balance has increased by 116% or at an annual rate of 8%.
- In the 21st Century alone, the federal student loan debt balance has increased 399%.
- The annual growth rate is 22% before adjusting for inflation; the adjusted annual growth rate is 8%.
- When expressed as a percentage of the global gross domestic product, the 5-year average national GDP has declined 24% since the 1960s.
- A college degree offers just under a 14% return on investment (ROI) on average.
- The average student loan debt has an 8% annual growth rate (2007-2022).
- 94% of Democratic voters and 85% of Republican voters support federal student debt relief in the form of refinancing federal loans to current rates (at a historic low).
- 52.8% of student loan debt holders could benefit from refinancing, reducing their average interest rate by 27.6% (from 5.8% to 4.2%).
Student Debt Reduces Spending
Consumer spending is directly linked to personal finance. Economists agree that when consumers have less expendable income due to debt obligations, they decrease spending.
- Each time a consumer’s student debt-to-income ratio increases by 1%, their consumption declines by 3.7%.
- 18% of student loan holders find it difficult to buy daily necessities because of their student loans.
- Student debt is the 2nd largest type of household credit (after mortgages).
- Debt may inhibit spending for decades as 20 years after entering school, half of student borrowers still owe $20,000 each on outstanding loan balances.
- The total student loan debt balance exceeds the value of some of the national economy’s best-performing sectors; the pet industry alone is worth $95 billion or 5.59% of the value of all student loan debt.
Debt Inhibits Business Growth
Small businesses are especially vulnerable to the economic impact of student loan debt as they are the most likely to rely on personal financing.
- Would-be entrepreneurs are 11% less likely to start a new business if they owe more than $30,000 in student loan debt.
- The average student loan debt per borrower is $37,570.
- Businesses with fewer than 20 employees create a net of 1.2 million new jobs annually.
- 99.9% of businesses in the U.S. have fewer than 20 employees.
- Small businesses with fewer than 500 employees employ 47.3% of the national private workforce.
- A joint study by Pennsylvania State University and Federal Reserve Banks finds “a significant and economically meaningful negative correlation between changes in student debt and net new businesses employing one to four employees…”.
Debt Hampers Housing Markets
Consumers with student loan debt have lower credit scores on average and are more likely to live with their parents.
- Students with outstanding loan payments are 36% less likely to purchase a house.
- 13.32% of millennial renters indicate they will never be able to afford to buy a home.
- In 2019, 8.28% said they would never be able to buy a home.
- In two years, the rate of millennial renters giving up on homeownership increased by 60.9%.
- The national homeownership rate hit its peak in 2004 at 69.2%.
- Homeownership declined 1.1% in the 2010s; its low was 62.9% in 2016.
- The rate of homeownership has increased 9.6% since 1964.
Debt Stresses Social Programs
As more Americans take on greater amounts of student loan debt, they rely on social programs to make ends meet.
- 1 out of every 5 recipients of food stamps (SNAP) holds a postsecondary degree.
- Twice as many SNAP recipients have associate’s degrees vs. bachelor’s degrees.
- About 3 million college graduates receive SNAP benefits.
- Roughly 63% of women with bachelor’s degrees receive SNAP benefits.
National Economic Trends
While the U.S. appears to have made relatively little economic progress in the years following explosive student debt growth, there is no definitive link between market performance and student loan debt.
- The national economy declined 3.5% from 2019 to 2020.
- During that same period, the average student loan debt increased by 3.4%.
- At 8.00%, USD inflation in 2022, it was about double the 4-year average inflation rate of 3.93%.
- Since 1960, the U.S. has produced an annual average of 3.03% of the global GDP.
- In 2019, the national economy grew 2.2% while the global economy grew 2.34%.
Postsecondary Education Value
The ultimate cost of education determines its effect on the economy. Some argue that the benefits of a college education outweigh the burdens of student loan debt.
- 6.7% of the world’s population has a bachelor’s degree or higher.
- 40% of Americans aged 25 to 34 years old have a bachelor’s degree or higher.
- The average bachelor’s degree holder earns up to $22,000 more annually than a high school diploma holder.
- Considering student loan interest and loss of income, the ultimate cost of a bachelor’s degree may exceed $400,000.
- Women with bachelor’s degrees earn $506,430 more over a lifetime than women without bachelor’s degrees.
- The average undergraduate borrows $7,753.
- Graduate students borrow an average of $27,747.
- Among all student borrowers, the average amount borrowed has increased by 352% since 1995; after adjusting for inflation, the total increase is 128%.
- The median annual income for bachelor’s degree holders is $59,600.
- For graduate and professional degree holders, the median annual income is $69,700.
- The average undergraduate interest rate is 4.9%.
- Graduate loans carry an average interest rate of 6.54%.
- Undergraduates are 3 times more likely to default on loans than Graduate student borrowers.
Sources
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics: Despite Rising Costs, College Is Still a Good Investment
- International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Update January 2021
- U.S. Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy, 2019 Small Business Profile
- U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), The Effect of Student Debt on Consumption: A State-Level Analysis
- New America, In the Interest of Few: The Regressive Benefits of Federal Student Loan Refinancing
- Apartment List’s 2022 Millennial Homeownership Report
- Where Is the Homeownership Rate Headed? Examining the Implications for New Housing | RCLCO Real Estate Consulting.
- One in Seven Social Safety Net Recipients in 2017 Were College Grads
- Federal Student Loan Portfolio
- U.S. Inflation Rate 1960-2022 | MacroTrends
- Homeownership Rate in the United States (RHORUSQ156N) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
- The U.S. Share of the Global Economy Over Time
- How Many People of the World Have a College Degree?
- Key facts about U.S. college graduates | Pew Research Center
- COE – Annual Earnings by Educational Attainment
- Interest Rates and Fees for Federal Student Loans
- The Volume and Repayment of Federal Student Loans: 1995 to 2017 | Congressional Budget Office
- Household Debt and Credit Report – FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
- The Impact of Student Loan Debt
- 28 Powerful Pet Industry Statistics [2022]: Trends, Facts, And Market Projections – Zippia
- The Cost of Financing Education: Can Student Debt Hinder Entrepreneurship? | Management Science